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Title Evaluation of a Computer Program for Diagnosis of Congenital Heart Disease
Author(s) Alan F. Toronto; L. George Veasy; Homer R. Warner
Source Progress in Cardiovascular Diseases, Vol. 5, No. 4, Pages 362-377
Publication Date January, 1963
Abstract At the turn of the century Sir William Osler stated, "Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability." However, no attempts to use an explicit probability theory in diagnosis was made until 1961, when the authors applied an expansion of Bayes' theorem of conditional probability to the diagnosis of congenital heart disease. This paper will be concerned with: (1) a review of the methods used in this approach and (2) an evaluation of the accuracy of diagnosis using the computer program as compared to that of three physicians.

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